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16-09-2006, 12:33 AM

It is looking more likely that ex hurricane Gordon will pay us a visit at the end of next week, the bbc atlantic pressure chart shows an intensly low pressure on wednesday just to the west of Ireland with a central pressure of 968mb and very tightly packed isobars, we may see possible winds of 100mph

Ben Taylor · 16-09-2006, 11:41 AM

Ok was depression I was talking about before. Looks like is immobile low that "absorbs" the ex-hurricane midweek and deepens dramatically. Definitely one to watch!

Ben Taylor · 16-09-2006, 12:33 PM

ECMWF actually shows Gordon hanging about to the South West of the deep low until Friday with this kind of result for the channel areas.

[attachment=831:attachment]

Lots of severe weather possiblities still remain though. With the Polar front around the charts show all kinds of cyclogenesis going on. Roll on next week!

***SevereWxMatt*** · 16-09-2006, 05:23 PM

My second favourite type of severe weather (after t-storms) is a good atlantic storm. Not only can we get severe gales but thier active cold fronts are great tornado producers!

Will keep an eye on this one, some models suggesting it will fill quite rapidly as it approaches Ireland though?

Matt.

Ben Taylor · 17-09-2006, 02:15 PM

The low should indeed fill as it will be under an upper low. Thing about these filling lows is that anything coming their way gets "absorbed". On recent charts for Thursday a certain ex-hurricane Gordon appears just off the coast of Spain, if you are watching on http://www.nhc.noaa.gov then you can see it is heading that way now.

[attachment=832:attachment]

Then on friday the tight circle we see on the above charts dissappears and wham! Look out South Coast!

[attachment=833:attachment]

Lazz · 17-09-2006, 02:20 PM

Does that mean that on Friday, the south coast could get some very severe weather?

Ben Taylor · 17-09-2006, 02:32 PM

We will have to wait and see. Am sure warnings will start coming out from midweek onwards, but the actual areas to be hit by the strongest winds may change as we get closer. Looks like a lot of England and Wales could get severe gales.

But mother nature will decide! Might reach the end of the week and wonder what all the fuss was about!

mam500 · 17-09-2006, 09:04 PM

Looks likes quite an exciting situation, if cyclogenesis does occur then it could be quite a big storm. That is the great thing about this time of the year, the fact that the jet stream is strengthening and we start to see these potent atlantic storms developing - cant wait for october and november when the really big ones arrive!!!!!!!!!!!!

mam

mam500 · 18-09-2006, 07:34 PM

Hey Guys - Met Office have just released this press release on their website, looks very promising.

News release

September storm

18 September 2006

Met Office forecasters are warning that, over the coming days, western Europe, including the British Isles, could feel the effects of an ex-tropical storm, with the potential for prolonged heavy rain, unseasonably high temperatures and strong winds.

Hurricane Gordon is currently in the mid-Atlantic, but is moving east towards the Azores. Through this week it is expected to lose its strength, but the effects of the storm will be felt closer to home as the remnants influence the weather across the UK during the second half of the week.

This weekend sees the Autumnal equinox. It is not uncommon at this time of year for the remains of ex-tropical cyclones (such as tropical storms and hurricanes) to move into northern latitudes and affect the weather across Europe. The impacts of such events are extremely variable. On this occasion we expect to see:

heavy, prolonged rain, especially in northern and western areas;
unseasonably high temperatures, possibly up to 28 °C, especially across south eastern areas;
the potential for very strong winds, especially affecting northern and western areas;
large sea swells coming onto south-west and west-facing beaches.
There is still doubt about how the weather pattern will develop over coming days and the detail of the forecast will be important. If the likelihood of severe weather across the UK increases, the Met Office will issue severe weather warnings as part of its remit as the UK's national weather service. It is advisable that people check the latest weather forecast to see how things are developing.

***SevereWxMatt*** · 18-09-2006, 07:37 PM

mam you beat me to it, i was just about to post the same thing!

Looking at the charts though, i am doubtfull anything severe regarding the wind strength - inland anyway. I guess you are in a great location Ben for SW'lys.

Matt.

mam500 · 19-09-2006, 10:59 AM

Hey - Ihave just read on met-check that there is a chance that Gordon could retain its circulation and effect Ireland and Western areas as a tropical storm, this sounds unprecedented!!! Has anything similar to this ever happened before???

Mark

19-09-2006, 11:05 AM

yesi think it happened in 2000 at some point.

Ben Taylor · 19-09-2006, 11:52 AM

Indeed I am in a great place for SW'lys. There are exposed places on Anglesey where some trees have a permanent lean in them towards the NE! In these sort of situations the Britannia Bridge will be closed to high sided vehicles, had a few of them blow over on there over the years - even remember a minibus ending up on its side!

Latest models I've seen show a tightly packed low centre skirting up the west of the UK. Thankfully my house is a bit sheltered!

19-09-2006, 12:48 PM

many forecasts predict wind of over 70mph, making this system the first storm this autumn, hopefully we should get a big one during winter.
gordon is heading for the azores first before moving up the west coast of the uk and could dump over a months rain.

mam500 · 19-09-2006, 01:51 PM

Could be some problems with flooding in western areas then. I am almost certain that this will not be the only autumn storm to affect us of this size, Hurricane Helene could be even bigger and more ferocious if she follows the same path as Gordon and hits the UK next week. The UK often does not experiance its largest storms until deep into autumn and early winter when temperature gradients are at there steepest, accompanied by a powerful jet stream. If this is a sign of things to come, then it looks as if we could be in for a promising atlantic storm season.