Wed 01-07-09 Forecast & Storm Reports

[TWISTED GILL]

Wednesday 01-07-09 Forecast and Storm reports

I have left out the precipitation for just now as the rain has been associated to areas where there is a high risk of storms, after trying it for the last few days I will revaluate in the morning.
As for shear it seems to be picking up a gear in to the upper moderate field in deeper layers across the associated with a weak trough from the Low over the Western Coastal regions of Ireland, I would expect that TORRO will issue a Convective Discussion in the morning.

I did notice that the Met Office have updated the heat health warning to take in areas of Wales as well as parts of England.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/heathealth/

As always I will update.

0600hrs
Temperature Range: 15°C & 18°C
Precipitation:
Areas of instability: Normal
Values: SBCAPE j/Kg MLCAPE j/Kg LI -

0900hrs
Temperature Range: 15°C & 23°C
Precipitation:
Areas of instability: North Wales, Midlands, Cumbria, SE Scotland and Grampian although weaker than the other areas.
Values: SBCAPE 800j/Kg, MLCAPE 700j/Kg & LI –3

1200hrs
Temperature Range: 15°C & 27°C
Precipitation:
Areas of instability: North Wales, Midlands, Cumbria, Yorkshire, Cumbria, SE Scotland and Grampian.

Values: SBCAPE 1700j/Kg, MLCAPE 1000-1100j/Kg & LI –4

1500hrs
Temperature Range: 15°C & 28°C
Precipitation:
Areas of instability: Wales, Midlands, Cumbria, Yorkshire, Cumbria, Central & SE Scotland and Grampian.
Values: SBCAPE 2000j/Kg, MLCAPE 1200-1400j/Kg & LI –5

1800hrs
Temperature Range: 15°C & 26°C
Precipitation:
Areas of instability: Wales, Midlands, Cumbria, Yorkshire, Cumbria, Central & SE Scotland and Grampian.
Values: SBCAPE 2200j/Kg, MLCAPE 1200-1400j/Kg & LI –5

2100hrs
Temperature Range: 15°C & 20°C
Precipitation:
Areas of instability: Wales, Midlands, Cumbria, Yorkshire, Cumbria, Central & SE Scotland and Grampian.
Values: SBCAPE 1100j/Kg, MLCAPE 1000j/Kg & LI –3


Well do enjoy and stay safe;)

[TWISTED GILL]

Well it looks like todays storms has started for some over the Liverpool area, just had a look at the radar and there is a cell hanging over the area just now.

As for rain well looks like we will get the rain in the morning clearing by midday and in the late afternoon in to the early evening, this pattern in the afternoon will likely affect the trunk of the UK.

[TWISTED GILL]

Well it looks like some will get some storms this morning, having just studied the satellite data there are several areas that are showing signs of established storm over Liverpool and developing storms Coventry and out over the North Sea at Boulmer.

[convection man]

Its feels muggy this morning up in the northeast, just checked metchecks storm forcast and for mid afternoon cape is at 1000 and Li -3 the colour chart is showing purple........I have never seen it purple before:oim all excited now hehehehe...just a shame im a work:angry:but hey ho, bring on the storms

[iamstuart]

2 5 min showers around 3.30 - 4.00 this morn but no thunder and lightning. Rain was heavy though!!

Just had a look at the sat image this morn and looks like Southport, Blackpool and preston area got the worst of it. Got skimmed again.:angry: There was lightning with this storm ive been informed from a Shaken but reliable source or freind whos house nearly got hit!!! :o

[anton]

Sounds good stuff, Im leaving Worcs now and off to Newcastle for a few hours work so figures crossed I may catch some action on the way.

[convection man]

ArraySounds good stuff, Im leaving Worcs now and off to Newcastle for a few hours work so figures crossed I may catch some action on the way.[/quote]


im in Newcastle mate and lunchtime cape is 768 with Li -3, from 1500 hrs cape 1000 Li -3. hope something happens:rolleyes:

[TWISTED GILL]

ArrayThere was lightning with this storm ive been informed from a Shaken but reliable source or freind whos house nearly got hit!!![/quote]

The lightning was quite good an SPM of 5 I managed to grab radar and satellite images of the storm.

The satellite image is showing the band that is due to hit us weaken over the Irish Sea but it had bubbled up nicely over land so looking very promising for midafternoon on for the storms that have been forecast.

[iamstuart]

ArrayArrayThere was lightning with this storm ive been informed from a Shaken but reliable source or freind whos house nearly got hit!!![/quote]

The lightning was quite good an SPM of 5 I managed to grab radar and satellite images of the storm.

The satellite image is showing the band that is due to hit us weaken over the Irish Sea but it had bubbled up nicely over land so looking very promising for midafternoon on for the storms that have been forecast.
[/quote]

Just had a look at charts and i think that wales, lancashire, cumbria, north yorkshire leading up to mid to SE scotland will see the worst of the storms today. The values look pritty good for late afternoon!!:rolleyes:

[iamstuart]

looks like a cell is building around the Hexam area!!

[Neil]

Gill no storms at all here and I live 17 mile from liverpool, howevere i am expecting storms later in the day.

[convection man]

Arraylooks like a cell is building around the Hexam area!![/quote]

which hexham we reffering too?

[Liam]

Hi and humid here, Ac is all i got. My storm chance looks best tomorrow evening with the current data.

UKMO upgraded heatwave to a level 3. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/h...index.html

[greatdog]

I am at Bournemouth airport and it has just hit 25c,not much wind and just some light cloud about but its feeling very hot!!

[martinastro]

TORRO have a tornado watch out now from Britain. Instability looks to have increased over N. Ireland too with a risk of showers/isolated t-storms provided solar heating can get going. With some vorticity I suspect there's a chance of funnels here too.